Perspectivas para a aviação comercial num contexto de escassez de petróleo

Na última conferência da ASPO, realizada em Houston, Texas, foi feita a seguinte apresentação: "Aviation and Peak Oil - Why the Conventional Wisdom is Wrong"

Conclusões:

• Current aviation forecasts are unrealistic
• Direct effects of fuel prices much less important for aviation than impact on GDP and travel and cargo demand
• Aviation sector must accelerate fuel efficiency and synfuel alternatives; however, these are necessary but not sufficient
• Peak oil will transform aviation sector from a rapidly growing to a declining industry
• Some aviation firms will survive and adapt; others will not
• Implications are dire for aviation and all travel dependent industries
• Implications for world economies of declining GDP are severe
• Nevertheless, a large aviation industry will survive, and “forecasts of its death have been greatly exaggerated”
• We will still be able to get “fresh strawberries in February” – but they will be fewer and much more expensive